Thailand's rice exports are forecasted to reach their lowest level in five years during 2026, primarily due to the strengthening of the local baht currency, which has eroded the competitiveness of Thai rice on the global market. The Thai Rice Exporters Association projects shipments will drop by around 11% from the previous year to approximately 7 million tons, down from expectations of 8 million tons in 2025, marking the second consecutive annual decline. This downturn threatens a vital sector that generates about $4 billion in revenue annually and supports roughly one in every four workers in the country, particularly in rural areas where rice farming dominates.
The baht's rally—appreciating over 8% in the past year to its strongest level against the US dollar in nearly five years—has made Thai rice significantly pricier for international buyers. For instance, benchmark 5% broken white rice now costs $20 to $30 more per ton than comparable varieties from rivals like India and Vietnam, while premium Hom Mali rice trades at around $1,110 per ton compared to Vietnam's ST25 at about $800. Early signs of weakness appeared in January 2026, when exports fell 17.5% year-over-year to 530,287 tons, with values dropping even more sharply by 23.9% to $313 million.
Compounding the currency issue is a surge in global rice supply, led by India's record production and releases from its reserves, alongside ample output from other producers. Thailand, once the world's leading rice exporter, has already slipped to third place behind India and Vietnam. Each one-baht strengthening against the dollar adds roughly $12 to $15 per ton to Thai rice prices, amplifying the disadvantage amid stable or falling global prices. While global rice trade is expected to hit a record 62.8 million tons in 2026 due to rising consumption, Thailand's exporters face an uphill battle unless the baht moderates or demand shifts toward its premium varieties. Industry leaders emphasize currency stability as critical, regardless of political changes, and plan to reassess targets later in the year.asia.nikkei+4
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